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First Ebola patient in the U.S.

adreno

PR activist
Messages
4,841
The reality is that we know very very little about viruses. So using the word "probable" is just a guess, nothing more. It might be true, but at this stage, it is just a guess. So why not take too many precautions instead of too few?
Call it a "guess" if you will. But it is our present best guess, based on the data that we have. Obviously, science is not written in stone.

And by all means take all precautions. I'm not arguing against that. What I'm trying to do is be as realistic as possible, rather than starting a panic over something that probably will never happen.

And you can pack away the conspiracy theories, too. It is not just the CDC or government agencies that claim ebola won't become airborne. It is experts from around the world:

But interviews with several infectious diseases experts reveal that whereas such a mutation—or more likely series of mutations—might physically be possible, it’s highly unlikely. In fact, there’s almost no historical precedent for any virus to change its basic mode of transmission so radically. “We have so many problems with Ebola, let’s not make another one that, of course, is theoretically possible but is pretty way down on the list of likely issues," says infectious diseases expert William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University. "Everything that is happening now can easily be comprehensively explained by person-to-person spread via body contact. We don’t have to invoke anything else.”
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-the-ebola-virus-will-go-airborne/
 

Tito

Senior Member
Messages
300
And you can pack away the conspiracy theories, too. It is not just the CDC or government agencies that claim ebola won't become airborne. It is experts from around the world:
Experts from around the world also said at some stage that multiple sclerosis was hysteria and that CFS was caused by deconditioning...

It is not because I add a word of caution about what experts speculate about that I believe in conspiracy theories. There is a whole spectrum of opinions between the two extremes.

What I notice is that so far, the Ebola crisis was treated in a certain way (mainly a lot of reassurances that the situation was under control). The fact is that the disease has spread quite considerably since. In my humble opinion, it means that we may have undermined a detail somewhere that might have caused that rapid spread. You might be right, and it may have nothing to do with the virus itself. And indeed it can be easily be explained by some social factors, like funeral rituals, etc. But let's keep an eye on other factors too. After all, people die...
 

ahmo

Senior Member
Messages
4,805
Location
Northcoast NSW, Australia
This is from the interview with the man who first discovered and named the Ebola virus, Professor Peter Piot, the Director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

While he does talk about possible mutations, he does not link those mutations to becoming airborne or cross-species.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/04/ebola-zaire-peter-piot-outbreak
Do you think we might be facing the beginnings of a pandemic?

There will certainly be Ebola patients from Africa who come to us in the hopes of receiving treatment. And they might even infect a few people here who may then die. But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.

The virus is continually changing its genetic makeup. The more people who become infected, the greater the chance becomes that it will mutate ...

... which might speed its spread. Yes, that really is the apocalyptic scenario. Humans are actually just an accidental host for the virus, and not a good one. From the perspective of a virus, it isn't desirable for its host, within which the pathogen hopes to multiply, to die so quickly. It would be much better for the virus to allow us to stay alive longer.

Could the virus suddenly change itself such that it could be spread through the air?

Like measles, you mean? Luckily that is extremely unlikely. But a mutation that would allow Ebola patients to live a couple of weeks longer is certainly possible and would be advantageous for the virus. But that would allow Ebola patients to infect many, many more people than is currently the case.

But that is just speculation, isn't it?

Certainly. But it is just one of many possible ways the virus could change to spread itself more easily. And it is clear that the virus is mutating.
 

Daffodil

Senior Member
Messages
5,875
You of course have the right to believe it is airborne, and that everyone is lying, I'm not going to argue with you. And sure, if all your nightmare scenarios come true your time might soon be up.

It has never happened in history that a blood-borne virus has mutated into a respiratory virus. That doesn't mean it's impossible, but it is unlikely.
why do you call it blood-borne? you can get it through saliva, sweat, urine, feces, and probably tears.

"The right time to get this epidemic under control in these countries has been missed,” Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit of Hamburg’s Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine told Deutsche Welle. “That time was May and June; now it is too late.”: German Ebola expert


it doesnt replicate perfectly when it infects a host. they say it has millions of chances to mutate this way because it is spreading so rapidly.

if the monkey ebola became airborne, this will become airborne too. Lipkin has been warning of such a scenario for a long time...he always said it is just a matter of time.

there IS no way to really prepare. honestly, i really wish i still lived in the tiny northern quebec small town i grew up in.
 

RustyJ

Contaminated Cell Line 'RustyJ'
Messages
1,200
Location
Mackay, Aust
I don't think it is helpful in a discussion to associate people with conspiracy talk, similarly for denigrating their sources, or being dismissive of their fears. Nothing is black and white. There is misinformation on both sides.

Here is an article which touches on some of the points discussed. As usual there are the authoritative apologists who are doing the their best to hose down public panic. But the article does note that there is some unease from the experts about the seriousness of Ebola.

Also there is odd misinformation about the current strain of Ebola, it is not Zaire as the article states. So their premise about it being less problematic because it is Zaire, is obviously wrong. Further, if all their premises are based on the wrong virus, who know?

I suspect that there are other means of becoming infected which the experts are not being open about. Eg the method of transmission between the monkeys and pigs was possibly water-borne. If the human virus mutates to survive for a longer time in bodily fluids then this also becomes an issue.
 

RustyJ

Contaminated Cell Line 'RustyJ'
Messages
1,200
Location
Mackay, Aust
I am reminded of the advice handed out in my country about preventative measures against the transmission of Ross River Fever and other mozzie transmitted diseases: Cover up and stay indoors

If you have lived in mosquito infested areas you would know how inadequate and ludicrous this advice is. Such advice is usually about soothing troubled souls rather than reducing risk.

The problem with advice about distances bodily fluids can travel and trying to keep outside that range is that it is only relevant in a situation where you know the other person has the virus. How many human to human interactions occur within a meter during a single day? If you don't know the other person has the disease, then the distance warning is irrelevant.

Personally, on a slightly lighter note, I'm thinking about stocking up on cans of pineapple pieces (hopefully the juice will provide enough water) and hiding under the bed.
 

RustyJ

Contaminated Cell Line 'RustyJ'
Messages
1,200
Location
Mackay, Aust
why cant they just test the dog for antibodies? why would they euthanize without checking?

you would think so. Perhaps they were trying to minimize risk of exposure by limiting further contact. Is it worth risking more lives to get testing done and to care for the dog till the tests returned?

It does raise other matters though. If more cases do emerge in the US and Europe will pets be euthanized as a precaution?
 

Soundthealarm21

Senior Member
Messages
420
Location
Dallas, TX
why cant they just test the dog for antibodies? why would they euthanize without checking?

I think the Spanish government is under a lot of pressure because of how horribly they screwed up this situation. It appears to me that they are trying to do anything they can to calm the public (as related to Ebola and not Animal lovers).
 

Nielk

Senior Member
Messages
6,970
Second US Ebola patient diagnosed. A healthcare worker in Dallas who was caring for the first patient.

This health care worker was wearing full CDC advised safety coverage. How is this possible?

This is very disturbing!
 
Messages
15,786
Second US Ebola patient diagnosed. A healthcare worker in Dallas who was caring for the first patient.

This health care worker was wearing full CDC advised safety coverage. How is this possible?

This is very disturbing!
In the US media they are repeating the CDC's confident assertion that the nurse failed to follow protocol at some point. In Dutch news, they clarified that this is an assumption by the CDC, and not something that they know occurred.

Hence the nurse got sick, and the CDC is assuming that she could only get sick by failing to follow protocol. But with so many health care workers having become ill, I'm wondering if the official protocols are actually sufficient.
 
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maryb

iherb code TAK122
Messages
3,602
Location
UK
Yes something is not sounding right. The nurse in Spain is 'reportedly' supposed to have wiped her eye whilst disrobing from the protective suit. Now if she is critically ill - in a coma, so how do they know this?
Presuming she was able to go into great detail before she succumbed to the virus?? Unlikely.